CCIM Institute Releases Fourth-Quarter National Investment Trend Report for Commercial Real Estate Industry
CHICAGO, December 10, 2012 Investment conditions have improved modestly across all property sectors, while property values remain flat and transaction volumes have decreased. These results were released today by CCIM Institute (www.ccim.com), one of the largest commercial real estate networks in the world, following a national third-quarter survey of CCIM members conducted by Real Estate Research Corp. (RERC).
Slow economic growth, high unemployment and anticipated federal tax increases are factors that continue to negatively impact the commercial investment environment, based on the report. The climate remains challenging for commercial real estate investors, who struggle to find viable opportunities in a slow-growth environment. A small silver lining commercial real estate remains a reasonable and sturdy investment choice for investors seeking realistic returns and minimal volatility, according to CCIM members.
Returns on investment income from commercial real estate can still be achieved over time for those with patience. There are plenty of investors seeking to avoid the volatility of the stock market, and who require higher yields than those offered by bonds and cash investments, said Kenneth P. Riggs Jr., CCIM, CRE, MAI, chief real estate economist for the CCIM Institute and chairman and president of Real Estate Research Corp. Commercial real estate is a good alternative for such investors, particularly those who are looking for income in a slow economy.
Investment Conditions Improve
Investment condition ratings for all property types office, industrial, retail, apartments and hotel improved during third-quarter 2012, with the apartment sector receiving the highest score, at 7.6 on a scale of 1 to 10, with 10 being highest. The hotel and industrial sectors ratings rose to 5.9 and 5.6, respectively, followed by the 5.4 rating for the retail sector. The office sector investment rating rose to 4.8.
CCIM members said that the best investment strategies in this environment include buying low, keeping cash on hand for future opportunities and investing in foreclosed or distressed properties. Members also suggest looking long term and advise patience when investing.
Return vs. Risk and Value vs. Price Ratings Rise
CCIM members raised the return-versus-risk ratings and value-versus-price ratings for all property types and for commercial real estate overall during third-quarter 2012.
Specifically, the overall return-versus-risk rating for commercial real estate increased to 5.5 during third-quarter 2012, according to CCIM members. Likewise, the return-versus-risk ratings for all of the property types increased. At 7.2, the apartment sector earned the highest rating. The industrial sector rating, at 5.7, pulled away from the hotel sector rating of 5.6. The rating for the retail sector increased to 5.3, while the office sector rating remained the lowest, at 4.9, during third quarter.
CCIM members noted that the value-versus-price for commercial real estate increased during third-quarter 2012, with the overall value-versus-price rating increasing to 5.6. Although the overall value of commercial real estate improved only slightly, the value-versus-price ratings also increased for every property sector. The industrial sector rating increased to 5.6, and retained the highest rating among the property sectors. Similarly, while the retail sectors rating rose to 5.3, the ratings for the office and apartment sectors each increased to 5.2. At 5.1, the hotel sector rating also increased, although the rating remained the lowest compared to the other property types.
Property Values Remain Flat
While commercial real estate seems to be holding its own with respect to income performance, property values remain flat and transaction volume declined in third-quarter 2012.
On a 12-month basis, transaction volume for all property types decreased with the exception of the industrial sector volume, which increased slightly. More specifically:
- Hotel sector volume fell 25 percent.
- Office and retail sectors volume declined approximately 15 percent and 10 percent, respectively.
- Apartment sector volume decreased about 5 percent from the previous quarter.
Get used to it, as this is the new normal for the economy and we should expect this investment environment for the foreseeable future. The low-hanging fruit has been picked, and investors are adapting to the challenges we face. Risk-adjusted returns for commercial real estate are down from what we have seen, but fundamentals are steady and even improving slightly, added Riggs. With volume and prices for commercial properties flat or down on average (except for apartments) during third quarter, plus assurance from Bernanke that interest rates will be low until mid-2015, opportunities with reasonable prices may be found in increasing numbers of secondary and tertiary locations.
Property Sector Highlights
Continuing a positive trend, the national vacancy rate for all property types continued to decline during third quarter 2012. Only the retail sector vacancy rate remained unchanged.
Other property sector highlights gleaned from the survey of CCIM members include:
- The apartment sector remained the safest and best investment compared to the other property types during third-quarter 2012.
- Compared to other property types, distressed and foreclosed office properties sold the best during third-quarter 2012.
- Industrial properties are currently underpriced. Members suggest that investors should buy low, lease at market value and hold. There is not much demand for industrial properties in the East region due to oversupply.
Short sales jump ahead of tax hike
CNN Money
The number of “short sales” is on the increase: A troubled homeowner gets out of a mortgage he can’t afford, and the bank unloads a house it might have to end up repossessing.
A soon-to-expire tax break for troubled homeowners is helping drive a spurt in “short sales.”
During the three months ended Sept. 30, short sales in which homeowners had fallen behind on mortgage payments soared 22% over last year, according to a report released Thursday by online marketing company RealtyTrac. By comparison, short sales by people current on their payments went up 17%.
In a short sale, homeowners sell at a price that is less than what they owe the bank, and the bank agrees to absorb the loss. The bank unloads the house and the homeowner gets out of a mortgage he can’t afford.
And currently, homeowners don’t have to pay federal tax on the unpaid mortgage debt because of a bailout-era law known as the federal Mortgage Debt Forgiveness Act.
But the act expires on Dec. 31 and, unless it is extended, the IRS in January will start treating unpaid mortgage debt as taxable income for many borrowers. The average amount of forgiven debt in a short sale is about $95,000, according to Blomquist. The tax on that could go as high as $33,250, even more if the Bush tax cuts expire.
So real estate agents are pushing to get short sales done by the end of the year, worried that if they don’t, deals will fall apart with the prospect of big tax bills, according to Daren Blomquist, vice president of RealtyTrac.
“They’re encouraging people to sell before the tax break ends,” he said.
With the year-end deadline approaching, short sales could spike even more in the current quarter.
“If that law expires, homeowners who agree to short sales could see their income tax jump significantly because the portion of the unpaid loan balance not covered by the short sale proceeds will be considered taxable income in many cases,” Blomquist said.
This quarter, more homes in foreclosure were sold as short sales than repossessed by banks and resold.
“Both lenders and at-risk homeowners are realizing that short sales are often a better alternative than foreclosure,” said Blomquist.
For banks, the calculation on short sales goes like this: Yes, they take a loss. But they also unload the property — an attractive option given that banks must bear the costs of maintaining homes they repossess.
Foreclosures can be costly for banks. They get stuck with legal costs as well as taxes and maintenance expenses. The longer it takes to repossess a home — and it can take years — the more the expenses mount. Short sales can happen quickly.
In addition, homes in short sales go for higher prices than ones repossessed in foreclosure and resold by banks. The average sales price comparison: $191,025 for short sales vs. $161,954 for homes sold by banks in foreclosure.
Another factor driving short sales: Since March, the five biggest lenders have been able to claim some of the forgiven debt in short sales as credits against what they owe under the mortgage abuse settlement they reached with the government. Already, the banks have approved $13 billion in short sales for 113,000 borrowers under that pact.
One group left out of the benefits of the tax break are homeowners in California, Arizona and 10 other states in which the IRS does not tax forgiven debt because of those states’ laws.